Butch Jones

@18in32 I'll play devil's advocate for the distinction. It could be that the likelihood of coach firings changes depending on who gets fired first. For instance, if Nick Saban happens to be fired first, for whatever improbable reason, Ed Orgeron's seat could spontaneously combust as LSU makes immediate compulsory holy war on anything in between them and Nick. That would change the expectation from "Wow, Saban is gone, Butch Jones is next" to something else entirely.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
I'll play devil's advocate for the distinction. It could be that the likelihood of coach firings changes depending on who gets fired first. For instance, if Nick Saban happens to be fired first, for whatever improbable reason, Ed Orgeron's seat could spontaneously combust as LSU makes immediate compulsory holy war on anything in between them and Nick. That would change the expectation from "Wow, Saban is gone, Butch Jones is next" to something else entirely.
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But it is irrelevant who get fired 2nd.
 
coit said:
Well I don't profess to know what goes into those odds, but I would guess that it goes something like this:

How many more bad seasons until Coach X gets fired?

Jones - < 1
Orgeron - 2
Stoops - 2.5
Smart - 3
Saban - 6
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I think they would fire Saban and tear down his statue for less than 6 bad seasons.
 
Butch won't get fired unless he goes 6-6 or worse. However, he can't lose to Vandy. The Big $$ donors in the state will not tolerate it.
 
rduvol#2017 said:
Butch won't get fired unless he goes 6-6 or worse. However, he can't lose to Vandy. The Big $$ donors in the state will not tolerate it.
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That's hilarious. At 7-5, with losses to Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and 1 of GT, South Carolina, or Kentucky, but with that precious win over Vanderbilt, you think he stays? Taking a preseason top-25 program, 1 of 12 in the nation that clears the "national championship contender" mark for 4 year recruiting and winning just 4 actual games? I mean, three of y'alls games are Indiana State, Southern Miss, and UMass for crying out loud.

If you hire him back after that, you deserve him. :lol:
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
That's hilarious. At 7-5, with losses to Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and 1 of GT, South Carolina, or Kentucky, but with that precious win over Vanderbilt, you think he stays? Taking a preseason top-25 program, 1 of 12 in the nation that clears the "national championship contender" mark for 4 year recruiting and winning just 4 actual games? I mean, three of y'alls games are Indiana State, Southern Miss, and UMass for crying out loud.

If you hire him back after that, you deserve him. :lol:
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Life Champions
 
It's possible that no coaches would get fired for 2-3 years. Maybe the "hot seat" coaches will have some good years for a couple seasons. It's also possible that a coach could be fired for a reason other than W-L record (dead girl/live boy). So the next coach fired could be in a couple years and could happen despite a great W/L record.
 
ramblin' wagon said:
I think that Orgeron at +800 is most out of place. Dude has a $12 mil buyout.
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Where does one sign up to be a bad foobaw coach??? I can do that for HALF the price!

Schematic Advantage is still getting paid MILLIONS by programs he hasn't coached for in over a decade...
 
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ThisIsAtlanta said:
That's hilarious. At 7-5, with losses to Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and 1 of GT, South Carolina, or Kentucky, but with that precious win over Vanderbilt, you think he stays? Taking a preseason top-25 program, 1 of 12 in the nation that clears the "national championship contender" mark for 4 year recruiting and winning just 4 actual games? I mean, three of y'alls games are Indiana State, Southern Miss, and UMass for crying out loud.

If you hire him back after that, you deserve him. :lol:
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Point being there's a buyout involved. We've won 9 games each of the last 2 years. If he goes 7-5 with losses to UK and Vandy he's in real trouble. 8-4 seems to be the consensus by the media.
 
rduvol#2017 said:
Point being there's a buyout involved. We've won 9 games each of the last 2 years. If he goes 7-5 with losses to UK and Vandy he's in real trouble. 8-4 seems to be the consensus by the media.
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8-4 is pretty unimaginative, IMO. I think it's clear to everyone that Tennessee has the talent to win 10 or 11 games. He might maybe survive another 8-4 but just on fumes from recruiting, but it's difficult to see him building so much further from here that he can win the way he needs to on roster talent alone. His buyout after this season would be $7.5 million, which is a figure, but not a prohibitive one. If you go 7-5 you really have to look at whether you're going to cost yourself more than that by keeping him. Tennessee fans seem to get really "burny" with their gear sometimes when they aren't happy.

Anywho, it's an academic exercise anyway, because Georgia sucks bad and you guys will trash them. This Tennessee team should realistically dismantle every other team in the SEC east.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
8-4 is pretty unimaginative, IMO. I think it's clear to everyone that Tennessee has the talent to win 10 or 11 games. He might maybe survive another 8-4 but just on fumes from recruiting, but it's difficult to see him building so much further from here that he can win the way he needs to on roster talent alone. His buyout after this season would be $7.5 million, which is a figure, but not a prohibitive one. If you go 7-5 you really have to look at whether you're going to cost yourself more than that by keeping him. Tennessee fans seem to get really "burny" with their gear sometimes when they aren't happy.

Anywho, it's an academic exercise anyway, because Georgia sucks bad and you guys will trash them. This Tennessee team should realistically dismantle every other team in the SEC east.
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Have you seen our ESPN game promo? It's basically showing UT and GT highlights of beating UGA last year. Hilarious.
 
beej67 said:
Kirby Smart same odds as Nick Saban is laughable.
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Alabama fans might fire Saban for losing the national championship two years in a row.

Meanwhile, now that Comcast requires a digital box to watch TV, many uGA fans may not realize how terrible of a coach Kirby actually is because they can't tap off the one paying customer in the trailer park
 
I think he is more likely to die of an aneurysm right there on the sidelines, wound up way too tight.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
@18in32 I'll play devil's advocate for the distinction. It could be that the likelihood of coach firings changes depending on who gets fired first. For instance, if Nick Saban happens to be fired first, for whatever improbable reason, Ed Orgeron's seat could spontaneously combust as LSU makes immediate compulsory holy war on anything in between them and Nick. That would change the expectation from "Wow, Saban is gone, Butch Jones is next" to something else entirely.
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That's an interesting point, though I'm not sure if it was coit's. And I think the effect probably goes the opposite way from your hypothetical. The worst thing for SEC coach job security has been the bar set by Saban at Alabama. If he were to get fired (for whatever reason), it would add 1.5 years (or whatever) to every other coach's tenure on average — even Orgeron.
 
LagrangeJacket said:
I would think Sumlin has to be the overwhelming favorite after last night.

Let's do what we can to put Butch back on top.
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I think I read somewhere that Sumlin's buyout is $11M. then again, I'm having trouble focusing this morning.
 
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