For Everyone Who Thinks the Defense is Better This Year

[johncu]

Then what's the explanation for 3 TDs against Miami? Pitt? Less than 40 against Mercer? Why did we need 11+ play drives against basically a high-school defense?

The explanation is that we don't play perfect every game. Though we did playe very well against Pitt for the majority of the game, as was discussed at length in other threads. We scored on 67% of our possessions in that game - how much better do you expect us to do? The problem is that Pitt's offense did even better.

Hell, even against Miami we outgained them and moved the ball fairly well. We just couldn't get in the endzone and crapped the bed pretty badly on those two fumble plays. We scored on 3 of 11 drives (27%). Their opponents average scoring 25% of the time against them, so even in what was probably our 2nd worst game of the season, our offense was above average in terms of how well it moved the ball and even outscored 5 of their other 6 opponents.

 

[johncu]

And a big part of the reason we only scored 35 on Mercer was that we only had 8 offensive possessions. Just as a frame of reference, Clemson had 15 possessions against Troy and only managed 30 points. With 15 possessions, we drop 60+ on Mercer easily. It's all about pace of play, and the fact that their offense sustained drives and kept the ball away from us.

 

[18in32]

If an offense scores TD's on 5 out of 7 drives, that's MUCH better than 6 out of 15 drives. But focusing solely on points per game makes the 6/15 team better than the 5/7 team. That's completely wrong.

It may be wrong but it is not completely wrong. You can't assume the 5/7 team could maintain that pace over more possessions. Would Orwin Smith have maintained his spectacular per carry numbers if we'd just given him the ball every play? I like per possession stats but they are not the holy grail.

 

[AE 87]

It may be wrong but it is not completely wrong. You can't assume the 5/7 team could maintain that pace over more possessions. Would Orwin Smith have maintained his spectacular per carry numbers if we'd just given him the ball every play? I like per possession stats but they are not the holy grail.

You're right that it's certainly a limitation to the stat, but I wonder how frequently it happens. Teams have a style/pace so even when a fast team plays a slow team, the game more likely meets in the middle rather than one extreme.

Regardless, I think it clarifies the point being made if you consider the 5 of 7 and 6 of 15 TDs/drive offenses as competing against the same D, call it average Pwr5/FBS D (which I think you understood but just to be clear).

 

[ThomsonJacket]

All we can ask for is improvement, year over year. Now ask me again in 3 years (after 2018 season) and I may have changed my tune. I'm all about giving Roof time to bring in a full set of kids to the point he isn't playing multiple true freshmen in the starting lineup.

You're a year early.

 

[donsue]

Some FACTS, for those of you inclined to stop crying long enough to read them.

Using the excellent summary prepared by @GTFLETCH here:

https://www.stingtalk.com/board/threads/too-soon-to-pull-the-plug-on-cpj.89993/page-3#post-1858389

And the summary below taken verbatim from a post exactly one week ago, here:

https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/one-part-of-our-team-that-is-working-well.90051/#post-1859787

Roof has basically 2 recruiting classes on the field at this point. He has been a part of 3 classes, but consider that pretty much all of his 2016 guys are redshirted. Of the guys in his classes that are playing, 12 guys on the 2-deep did not redshirt, i.e. they played as freshmen. So, we are behind the curve a bit from a maturity level.

Also, according to the 2-deep, there are 6 guys from the 2012 and 2013 classes. SIX. TOTAL. At least 10 of the 22 guys on there should be 4th and 5th year guys. I just glanced at Pitt's depth chart and they have 11 guys that are either RS JR, SR, or RS SR. And their chart even goes 3-deep in some positions. Other schools will show similar situations.

Additionally, we all know that our recruiting has improved under Roof, dramatically in some cases. Let's not forget that one of our starters on the DL (until recently anyway) was brought in on sheer potential, and has not panned out.

So, we have a dearth of upperclassmen, the guys we do have playing are a year younger than would be preferred from an experience standpoint, and our upperclassmen that we do have are not as talented as some of the guys are we getting now. Those things combine for a real problem from a depth standpoint.

My takeaway, and I hope yours as well, is that Roof is raising the bar on our defense. But it takes time to overcome the barren cupboard he was left with. He's bringing a strong class this year, and I think the next two years will show an uptick in defensive performance similar to what we've seen from when he got here until now.

Preach on brother! You can't make a nag win the Kentucky Derby. It amazes me how some people on here believe a coaching change will lead to shutting down other teams. I posted this in another thread, the starting 11 on defense consists of a majority of players who were never offered by other SEC or major ACC programs, and only about 2 had a national ranking of any kind. You can keep hiring and firing all you want, but Houdini can't win with undersized and under talented players

 

[coit]

You're a year early.

Yeah I like mentioned in an earlier thread, the defense really regressed in the last few games this season. Just don’t think that next year is going to be any different.

Preach on brother! You can't make a nag win the Kentucky Derby. It amazes me how some people on here believe a coaching change will lead to shutting down other teams. I posted this in another thread, the starting 11 on defense consists of a majority of players who were never offered by other SEC or major ACC programs, and only about 2 had a national ranking of any kind. You can keep hiring and firing all you want, but Houdini can't win with undersized and under talented players

This is true for sure, but it might be time for a change.