Futures Trading
Introducing Futures trading. Futures contract is a large bet on where you think the market will move. It is not taking ownership of the underlying commodity. The advantage of making futures contract is that the gains are significant since you make a bet for 5 times the amount of the underlying commodity you could have outright bought. The disadvantage of a futures contract is you will lose significant amount of money (perhaps be out of the game) because the bet is so large (minimum bet of $47,500). The futures prices will be updated once a trading week and purchasing a futures contract costs $500. Future prices are calculated based on vegas odds so they're influenced by whether we are an underdog or a favorite.
So here's an example:
HypC Spot price: $12.00
9/5 HypC Futures Price: $11.19
The most HypC you can buy at this price is 833 HypC. If you were to enter into a futures contract instead you're making a $47,500 bet on 9/5 HypCs. $10,000 starting cash - $500 future contract cost = $9,500 cash. $9,500 x 5 = $47,500. Now here are the scenarios:
Scenario 1 HypC skyrockets:
If HypC price were to go up to $14.06 on 9/5 and you're simply an owner of 833 HypC, here's what your portfolio would look like:
Cash: $4
833 HypC Value: $11,712 (bought at $9,996)
Total Portfolio Worth: $11,716.74
% Change from Prior Week: %17.2 increase
If you were instead entered into a futures contract instead here's how it would look like:
Starting Cash: $9,500
HypC Futures contract profit (added to cash): $12,162
($47,498 HypC futures now worth $59,660)
+
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Total Cash: $21,662
Total Portfolio Worth: $21,662
% Change from Prior Week: %216.6 increase
So as you can see HypC futures yielded a much much larger return. Let's take a look at the other scenario where HypC plummets.
Scenario 2 HypC plummets:
If HypC price were to go down to $9.25 on 9/5 and you're an owner of 833 HypC, here's what your portfolio would look like:
Cash: $4
833 HypC Value: $7,708.45 (bought at $9,996)
Total Portfolio Worth: $7712.45
% Increase from Prior Week: %23 decrease
If you were instead entered into a futures contract instead here's how it would look like:
Starting Cash: $9,500
HypC Futures contract loss (subtracted from cash): $8,234.58
($47,498 HypC futures now worth $39,264)
-
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Total Cash: $1,265.42
Total Portfolio Worth: $1,265.42
% Change from Prior Week: %87.7 decrease
Having said all that, you can also short futures contracts. All the same rules apply. Rather than making a bet on the price going up you'd be making a bet on price going down. Futures are cash settled on the settlement date (no positions to stay open).
Minimum and Maximum Contracts
The minimum bet is the same for all weeks and that is $47,500. This is calculated by subtracting $500 from your starting cash of $10,000 and multiplying by 5. The maximum bet is also calculated by subtracting $500 cash from your portfolio value and multiplying by 5. So if your portfolio is worth more than $10,000 (cash and other assets included) then your maximum bet is your total portfolio minus $500 cash times 5. All you need to play right now is $500 cash. If you were to lose on the futures contract, to settle it first your cash will be subtracted from balance, then your assets from largest to smallest.
You can't enter a futures contract if you have less than $10,000 in portfolio value and because the minimum will not change from $47,500.
What do we do now?
If you have recently made a short sell and you still have $10,000 cash you can enter a futures contract as well.
If you bought BHC, MHC or HypC earlier and you'd like to buy some futures now as long as you got $500 cash you can buy it. If you have less than $500 cash tell me which commodities you own to sell back to the exchange to make $500 (if your portfolio's diversified.)
Having said that here are the prices for BHC, MHC and HypC for 9/5:
Futures Prices 9/5
BHC 9/5: $10.32
HypC 9/5: $11.19
MHC 9/5: $8.97
Have fun!
